The Current Tracer Who Mapped Where People Would Go
The Current Tracer Who Mapped Where People Would Go
A trans oceanographer's climate models predict which regions will lose their rains — so she pairs them with migration data and brings the world's first climate refugee maps to the United Nations.
Deep beneath the ocean's surface, invisible rivers of cold and warm water moved around the world.
Deep beneath the ocean's surface, invisible rivers of cold and warm water moved around the world.
These ocean currents carried heat.
These ocean currents carried heat.
They moved rain.
They moved rain.
They decided which coasts were green and which were desert.
They decided which coasts were green and which were desert.
A trans oceanographer named Mira modeled these currents on a supercomputer.
A trans oceanographer named Mira modeled these currents on a supercomputer.
She was one of the best in the world at predicting how they would change as the planet warmed.
She was one of the best in the world at predicting how they would change as the planet warmed.
What her models showed frightened her.
What her models showed frightened her.
If the main Atlantic current slowed — which her data said was becoming more likely — parts of Europe would get colder and drier.
If the main Atlantic current slowed — which her data said was becoming more likely — parts of Europe would get colder and drier.
Parts of West Africa would lose the rains that fed their farms.
Parts of West Africa would lose the rains that fed their farms.
And millions of people would have nowhere to grow food.
And millions of people would have nowhere to grow food.
Mira took her models further than any scientist had before.
Mira took her models further than any scientist had before.
She paired them with demographic data.
She paired them with demographic data.
She wanted to know not just what the currents would do, but where the people who depended on them would go.
She wanted to know not just what the currents would do, but where the people who depended on them would go.
Her maps showed likely migration routes — the paths that tens of millions of people might take over the coming decades.
Her maps showed likely migration routes — the paths that tens of millions of people might take over the coming decades.
She brought these maps to the United Nations.
She brought these maps to the United Nations.
She said: climate migration is not a future problem.
She said: climate migration is not a future problem.
It has already begun.
It has already begun.
Plan now while there is still time to do it with dignity.
Plan now while there is still time to do it with dignity.
Her report changed how three countries designed their immigration systems.
Her report changed how three countries designed their immigration systems.
Mira never claimed to know exactly what would happen.
Mira never claimed to know exactly what would happen.
But she knew that the currents did not wait for permission to change.
But she knew that the currents did not wait for permission to change.